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Housing Trend Stable in December

Housing Trend Stable in December

housing starts canada

The trend in housing starts was 226,777 units in December 2017, compared to 226,178 units in November 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Despite the variation in activity across the country, the national trend in housing starts held steady at its highest level since 2008,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “Total urban housing starts in 2017 were up 6.2% compared to 2016 due to the rise in apartment construction.”

 

Stats for Toronto

Overall, the pace of new home construction in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) remained virtually unchanged in 2017. Close to 39,000 homes broke ground this year, down 0.7% from 2016. Strong demand for new homes continued to be supported by improved employment conditions and strong migration. However, affordability challenges, tighter mortgage rules, increasing price gap with resale market alternatives, and a better-supplied resale market weighed on single-detached starts, which were down by 14% compared to 2016. Given escalating house prices, more homebuyers continued to shift their demand towards relatively more affordable housing options such as townhouses, and more affordable areas such as Brampton. Condominium apartment starts were down by 5% compared to 2016, nevertheless they continued to dominate new home construction thanks to strong demand from price-sensitive homebuyers and investors.

 

Measuring Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (SAAR)

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 216,980 units in December, down from 251,675 units in November. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 15.1% in December to 198,132 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 22% to 135,176 units in December. Single-detached urban starts increased by 4.7% to 62,956 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,848 units.

 

Graph of Housing Starts in Canada

 

 Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
Single-Detached All Others Total
Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 % Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 % Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 %
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L. 70 77 10 18 56 211 88 133 51
P.E.I. 7 22 214 6 17 183 13 39 200
N.S. 117 110 -6 111 167 50 228 277 21
N.B. 47 60 28 52 103 98 99 163 65
Atlantic 241 269 12 187 343 83 428 612 43
Qc 536 542 1 2,645 4,101 55 3,181 4,643 46
Ont. 2,638 2,091 -21 3,789 2,858 -25 6,427 4,949 -23
Man. 143 223 56 110 351 219 253 574 127
Sask. 154 121 -21 174 194 11 328 315 -4
Alta. 909 984 8 1,054 703 -33 1,963 1,687 -14
Prairies 1,206 1,328 10 1,338 1,248 -7 2,544 2,576 1
B.C. 696 843 21 2,476 3,169 28 3,172 4,012 26
Canada (10,000+) 5,317 5,073 -5 10,435 11,719 12 15,752 16,792 7
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission 39 26 -33 27 13 -52 66 39 -41
Barrie 36 28 -22 0 43 ## 36 71 97
Belleville ** 37 ## ** 67 ## ** 104 ##
Brantford 11 11 10 2 -80 21 13 -38
Calgary 294 349 19 681 334 -51 975 683 -30
Edmonton 409 412 1 303 305 1 712 717 1
Greater Sudbury 14 6 -57 23 4 -83 37 10 -73
Guelph 17 18 6 17 0 -100 34 18 -47
Halifax 64 90 41 92 166 80 156 256 64
Hamilton 111 59 -47 655 268 -59 766 327 -57
Kelowna 81 84 4 235 177 -25 316 261 -17
Kingston 20 55 175 26 17 -35 46 72 57
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 120 57 -53 669 138 -79 789 195 -75
Lethbridge ** 45 ## ** 22 ## ** 67 ##
London 112 150 34 81 52 -36 193 202 5
Moncton 18 13 -28 8 35 338 26 48 85
Montréal 206 232 13 1,696 3,151 86 1,902 3,383 78
Oshawa 39 117 200 81 18 -78 120 135 13
Ottawa-Gatineau 281 308 10 417 599 44 698 907 30
Gatineau 67 48 -28 105 48 -54 172 96 -44
Ottawa 214 260 21 312 551 77 526 811 54
Peterborough 25 32 28 0 24 ## 25 56 124
Québec 51 52 2 265 390 47 316 442 40
Regina 43 29 -33 111 35 -68 154 64 -58
Saguenay 33 16 -52 15 30 100 48 46 -4
St. Catharines-Niagara 114 152 33 19 26 37 133 178 34
Saint John 8 12 50 3 26 ## 11 38 245
St. John’s 61 62 2 17 39 129 78 101 29
Saskatoon 96 76 -21 46 144 213 142 220 55
Sherbrooke 18 32 78 77 52 -32 95 84 -12
Thunder Bay 4 3 -25 4 0 -100 8 3 -63
Toronto 1,350 767 -43 1,635 1,473 -10 2,985 2,240 -25
Trois-Rivières 21 12 -43 75 45 -40 96 57 -41
Vancouver 284 402 42 1,870 2,306 23 2,154 2,708 26
Victoria 67 70 4 79 134 70 146 204 40
Windsor 52 35 -33 39 2 -95 91 37 -59
Winnipeg 130 181 39 100 322 222 230 503 119
Total 4,229 4,030 -5 9,376 10,459 12 13,605 14,489 6

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

** Belleville and Lethbridge were not metropolitan areas in 2016.
## not calculable/extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data — Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
Single-Detached All Others Total
Nov. 2017 Dec. 2017 % Nov. 2017 Dec. 2017 % Nov. 2017 Dec. 2017 %
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L. 574 772 34 783 678 -13 1,357 1,450 7
P.E.I. 270 410 52 660 204 -69 930 614 -34
N.S. 703 1,043 48 2,257 2,036 -10 2,960 3,079 4
N.B. 781 776 -1 1,259 1,661 32 2,040 2,437 19
Qc 6,835 6,729 -2 37,785 40,935 8 44,620 47,664 7
Ont. 23,504 24,403 4 70,552 36,515 -48 94,056 60,918 -35
Man. 2,538 3,062 21 3,888 4,212 8 6,426 7,274 13
Sask. 1,526 1,653 8 2,064 2,328 13 3,590 3,981 11
Alta. 11,466 12,402 8 21,095 8,702 -59 32,561 21,104 -35
B.C. 11,933 11,706 -2 32,957 37,905 15 44,890 49,611 11
Canada (10,000+) 60,130 62,956 5 173,300 135,176 -22 233,430 198,132 -15
Canada (All Areas) 73,999 77,693 5 177,675 139,286 -22 251,675 216,980 -14
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission 695 424 -39 1,344 156 -88 2,039 580 -72
Barrie 956 525 -45 876 516 -41 1,832 1,041 -43
Belleville 483 402 -17 216 804 272 699 1,206 73
Brantford 139 137 -1 24 24 163 161 -1
Calgary 4,197 4,206 0 13,368 4,008 -70 17,565 8,214 -53
Edmonton 4,418 5,432 23 6,312 3,660 -42 10,730 9,092 -15
Greater Sudbury 156 85 -46 72 48 -33 228 133 -42
Guelph 270 319 18 3,000 0 -100 3,270 319 -90
Halifax 666 957 44 2,052 1,992 -3 2,718 2,949 8
Hamilton 763 782 2 4,392 3,216 -27 5,155 3,998 -22
Kelowna 854 934 9 1,740 2,124 22 2,594 3,058 18
Kingston 93 581 ## 132 204 55 225 785 249
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 935 829 -11 6,840 1,656 -76 7,775 2,485 -68
Lethbridge 455 429 -6 72 264 267 527 693 31
London 1,879 2,116 13 5,736 624 -89 7,615 2,740 -64
Moncton 187 183 -2 1,092 420 -62 1,279 603 -53
Montréal 2,802 2,885 3 22,993 37,492 63 25,795 40,377 57
Oshawa 1,502 1,554 3 2,256 216 -90 3,758 1,770 -53
Ottawa-Gatineau 2,766 3,427 24 9,444 7,188 -24 12,210 10,615 -13
Gatineau 500 667 33 396 576 45 896 1,243 39
Ottawa 2,266 2,760 22 9,048 6,612 -27 11,314 9,372 -17
Peterborough 197 371 88 0 288 ## 197 659 235
Québec 729 688 -6 11,700 4,680 -60 12,429 5,368 -57
Regina 396 419 6 1,224 420 -66 1,620 839 -48
Saguenay 244 229 -6 492 360 -27 736 589 -20
St. Catharines-Niagara 1,199 1,561 30 1,584 312 -80 2,783 1,873 -33
Saint John 261 146 -44 24 312 ## 285 458 61
St. John’s 402 580 44 624 468 -25 1,026 1,048 2
Saskatoon 893 1,005 13 720 1,728 140 1,613 2,733 69
Sherbrooke 260 391 50 1,560 624 -60 1,820 1,015 -44
Thunder Bay 148 65 -56 144 0 -100 292 65 -78
Toronto 8,907 8,224 -8 36,168 17,676 -51 45,075 25,900 -43
Trois-Rivières 173 143 -17 420 540 29 593 683 15
Vancouver 6,128 5,876 -4 24,864 27,672 11 30,992 33,548 8
Victoria 836 1,075 29 1,344 1,608 20 2,180 2,683 23
Windsor 568 518 -9 1,152 24 -98 1,720 542 -68
Winnipeg 1,897 2,559 35 3,492 3,864 11 5,389 6,423 19

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

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